Monday, June 5, 2017

Forex Insider Daily Update 5 June 2017

Major Bank Daily Position


AUD/USD - UOB - SHORT Position - From 0.7385 - Stopped out at 0.7455 (S/T) -70 pips
EUR/USD - Nomura - LONG Position - From 1.0845 - Adjusted - Stop from 1.0950 to 1.1000, Target: unch.
AUD/CAD - Morgan Stanley - SHORT Position - Opened - Entry: 1.0085, Target: 0.9750, Stop: 1.0170 (TOTW-S/T)


Major Bank Daily Insight

SocGen

SocGen argues that going into this week’s ECB meeting, it’s too soon to look for much open debate about scaling back the pace of ECB bond buying.
The Eur still looks strong relative to yield differentials and may remain stalled in the current range for a while. But that does not alter the longer term positive outlook.
On tech front, SocGen expect a pause with EUR/USD 1.1043 as support before a push up towards 1.139 with EUR.JPY  121.8 and 129.65 (If we break 126)
EUR/USD 1.14 and EUR/JPY 130 are sensible targets to which we would add 88.5 for EUR/GBP, though the longer term we still see EUR/GBP 0.9 again.

Danske

3 scenarios for the outcome of the UK election on Thursday and the potential target for EUR/GBP for each of them:
1.       Base case, We maintain the view that if Theresa May consolidates her majority substantially it would be GBP positive. We are looking EUR/GBP 0.82 – 0.865 with this.
2.       If the conservatives remain in power with unchanged majority, we remain a relief rally in GBP targeting EUR/GBP 0.84.  We expect the range 0.84-0.88
3.       If the Conservatives lose their majority, but remain in power, we expect a test kneejerk bounce of 0.9 with 0.84-0.88 range after wards.

Nomura

Nomura notes that with the recent drop in USD/CNY occurring around the same time as President Trump was critizing German trade, there may be a renewed focus on US trade policy by policymakers around the world.
In that regard, Nomura notes that the appointment and confirmation of Robert Lighthizer as US representatives for trade 3 weeks ago provide an impetus for a renewed focus on US trade policy by policymakers around the world as he is known trade hawk and critic of US trade imbalances with China.
“Therefore, we think the implicit weak dollar policy of the US may reassert itself over the coming months.”

0 comments:

Post a Comment