Major Bank Daily Position
AUD/USD - UOB - SHORT Position - From 0.7385 - Stopped out at 0.7455 (S/T) -70 pips |
EUR/USD - Nomura - LONG Position - From 1.0845 - Adjusted - Stop from 1.0950 to 1.1000, Target: unch. |
AUD/CAD - Morgan Stanley - SHORT Position - Opened - Entry: 1.0085, Target: 0.9750, Stop: 1.0170 (TOTW-S/T) Major Bank Daily Insight
SocGen
SocGen argues that going into this week’s ECB meeting, it’s
too soon to look for much open debate about scaling back the pace of ECB bond
buying.
The Eur still looks strong relative to yield differentials
and may remain stalled in the current range for a while. But that does not
alter the longer term positive outlook.
On tech front, SocGen expect a pause with EUR/USD 1.1043 as
support before a push up towards 1.139 with EUR.JPY 121.8 and 129.65 (If we break 126)
EUR/USD 1.14 and EUR/JPY 130 are sensible targets to which
we would add 88.5 for EUR/GBP, though the longer term we still see EUR/GBP 0.9
again.
Danske
3 scenarios for the outcome of the UK election on Thursday
and the potential target for EUR/GBP for each of them:
1.
Base case, We maintain the view that if Theresa
May consolidates her majority substantially it would be GBP positive. We are
looking EUR/GBP 0.82 – 0.865 with this.
2.
If the conservatives remain in power with
unchanged majority, we remain a relief rally in GBP targeting EUR/GBP
0.84. We expect the range 0.84-0.88
3.
If the Conservatives lose their majority, but
remain in power, we expect a test kneejerk bounce of 0.9 with 0.84-0.88 range
after wards.
Nomura
Nomura notes that with the recent drop in USD/CNY occurring
around the same time as President Trump was critizing German trade, there may
be a renewed focus on US trade policy by policymakers around the world.
In that regard, Nomura notes that the appointment and
confirmation of Robert Lighthizer as US representatives for trade 3 weeks ago
provide an impetus for a renewed focus on US trade policy by policymakers
around the world as he is known trade hawk and critic of US trade imbalances with
China.
“Therefore, we think the implicit weak dollar policy of the
US may reassert itself over the coming months.”
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