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Thursday, June 29, 2017

Forex Insider Daily Position Update 29 June 2017 Part 1



Major Bank Daily Position

EUR/USD - Morgan Stanley - LONG Limit Order - Adjusted - Entry from 1.1030 to 1.1200, Stop from 1.0800 to 1.0900, Target: unch. (M/T)
AUD/USD - Credit Suisse - LONG Position - From 0.7593 - Hit Target at 0.7700 (S/T) +107 pips
GBP/USD - UOB - LONG Limit Order - Canceled - Entry: 1.2905, Stop: 1.2840 (S/T)
EUR/USD - UOB - LONG Limit Order - Canceled - Entry: 1.1290, Stop: 1.1230 (S/T)

AUD/USD - UOB - LONG Limit Order - Placed - Entry: 0.7690, Target: 0.7790, Stop: 0.7630 (S/T)

Forex Insider Daily Update 29 June 2017



Major Bank Daily Position

USD/JPY - UOB - LONG Position - From 111.65 - Hit Target at 112.75 (S/T) +110 pips
USD/CAD - Morgan Stanley - LONG Position - From 1.3160 - Stopped out at 1.3000 (M/T) -160 pips
EUR/NZD - Nomura - LONG Limit Order - Placed - Entry: 1.5570, Target: 1.6190, Stop: 1.5250 (L/T)

BofAML

BofAML continues to see JPY as the nominal anchor for funding trades over the coming year as the BOJ commits to yield curve control targeting.
However, NZD/JPY heading towards highs and looking to increasingly expensive relative to rate differentials, questions on the strength of NZD may become a focal point for RBNZ.
Strong NZ macro fundamentals suggest a policy response will be eventually needed but RBNZ was somewhat cautious at its recent meetings as it continues to push back expectations
With NZD close to the year’s high, investors may prefer for a dip before adding.

TD

The risks to the EUR-phoria theme is that the foundation that build EUR rally looks flimsy over the coming months.
We like the structural EUR story but still look for a pushback towards 1.11 and like EUR/JPY downside over the coming days.

SocGen

The ECB can’t normalize monetary policy without sacrificing the extreme cheapness of the currency, but maybe ECB President thinks he can avoid a disorderly currency correction if he manages to guid market expectation
From here, we think erratically towards EUR/USD 1.2 and above EUR/JPY 130.

BTMU

USD/CAD is likely to break below 1.3 level before year end

However, we do not believe that it is a done deal that a rate hike will be delivered as early as at their next meeting which could create some 2 way price risk for the Lonnie in the month ahead. 

Wednesday, June 28, 2017

Forex Insider Daily Position Update 28 June 2017 Part 2

Major Bank Daily Position

GBP/USD - Citi - SHORT Position - From 1.2671 - Stopped out at 1.2875 (M/T) -204 pips
GBP/USD - Deutsche Bank - SHORT Position - From 1.2799 - Stopped out at 1.2970 (M/T) -171 pips
EUR/AUD - Goldman Sachs - LONG Position - From 1.4725 - Adjusted - Stop from 1.4545 to 1.4725, Target: unch. (M/T)
GBP/USD - UOB - LONG Limit Order - Placed - Entry: 1.2905, Stop: 1.2840 (S/T)

GBP/JPY - Morgan Stanley - LONG Position - From 142.20 - Adjusted - Stop from 143.00 to 144.40, Target: unch. (TOTW-L/T)

Tuesday, June 27, 2017

Forex Insider Daily Position Update 28 June 2017 Part 1

Major Bank Daily Position

USD/JPY - UOB - LONG Position - From 111.65 - Adjusted - Target from 112.80 to 112.75, Stop from 110.85 to 111.30 (S/T)
EUR/USD - UOB - LONG Limit Order - Placed - Entry: 1.1290, Stop: 1.1230 (S/T)

GBP/JPY - Morgan Stanley - LONG Position - From 142.20 - Adjusted - Stop from 139.00 to 143.00, Target: unch. (TOTW-L/T)

Forex Insider Daily Update 27 June 2017



Major Bank Daily Position

USD/CAD - Credit Suisse - SHORT Limit Order - Placed - Entry: 1.3300, Target: 1.2975, Stop: 1.3350 (S/T)
EUR/USD - Credit Suisse - LONG Position - From 1.1165 - Adjusted - Target from 1.1300 to 1.1295, Stop: unch. (S/T)
NZD/USD - Deutsche Bank - SHORT Position - Opened - Entry: 0.7284, Target: 0.7095, Stop: 0.7385 (M/T)
EUR/USD - Credit Suisse - LONG Position - From 1.1165 - Hit Target at 1.1295 (S/T) +130 pips
USD/CAD - Crédit Agricole - LONG Position - From 1.3190 - Hit Profit-Stop at 1.3195 (M/T) +5 pips
USD/JPY - Barclays - SHORT Stop Order - Canceled - Entry: 111.25, Target: 109.05, Stop: 112.32 (TOTW-M/T)
USD/CHF - Credit Suisse - LONG Position - From 0.9708 - Stopped out at 0.9639 (S/T) -69 pips
GBP/USD - Deutsche Bank - SHORT Limit Order - Filled - Entry: 1.2799 - Target: 1.2500, Stop: 1.2970 (M/T)
USD/CAD - Morgan Stanley - LONG Limit Order - Filled - Entry: 1.3160 - Target: 1.4000, Stop: 1.3000 (M/T)
GBP/USD - Credit Suisse - SHORT Position - From 1.2750 - Stopped out at 1.2848 (S/T) -98 pips
USD/CAD - ABN-AMRO - SHORT Position - From 1.3455 - Closed at market at 1.3155 (L/T) +300 pips

 Credit Agricole

The current levels of interest rate differentials and volatility are not supportive for a significant revival of the G10 carry trade.
The glory days of the carry trade were generated by either a historic bullish upturn in commodities and an extraordinary divergence in monetary policies generated by Fed via QE.
There conditions appear absent at the moment with the G10 economic cycles more synchronized and interest rate divergence smaller.
So for carry trades to make a comeback in a big way, we would likely have to see AUD,NZD and USD rates head significantly higher in near term, which is unlikely in our view.

TD

USD/CAD is likely to remain hovering around the predicable 1.32-1.36 range with a bias to trade near the lower end of Q3.
This reflects the fact that even though the BOC surprised markets with its shift in language around the removal of insurance cuts, it now priced to run parallel to Fed over the next 2 years.
TD also notes USD/CAD look cheap with it’s high frequency Fair Value model arguing a push back to 1.34.

Deutsche Bank

The ongoing GBP bounce is likely to be temporary on market’s anticipation of a rate hike late summer or autumn hike from BoE.
Sterling performance around Bank of England hiking cycles has been ambiguous at best.
We remain bearish on sterling, despite a surprising hawking BoE, cable remains expensive to fronet end rate spreads.
DB is structurally bearish GBP into year end and tactically short from 1.2799

NAB

Gold has been the biggest USD/JPY driver so far in June noticing it’s correction down from 1294 to current levels around 1246 has played a significant role in USD/JPY recent bounce.
We suggest that at least near term, gold may well begin to perform thus unless we see a material rise in US yields, USD/JPY will struggle to perform near term.

NAB targets USD/JPY 114 by end of Q3

Monday, June 26, 2017

Forex Insider Daily Position Update 26 June 2017 Part 2


Major Bank Daily Position

GBP/JPY - Morgan Stanley - LONG Position - Opened - Entry: 142.20, Target: 152.00, Stop: 139.00 (TOTW-L/T)

Sunday, June 25, 2017

Forex Insider Daily Position Update 26 June 2017 Part 1


Major Bank Daily Position

GBP/USD - Credit Suisse - SHORT Limit Order - Filled - Entry: 1.2750 - Target: 1.2550, Stop: 1.2848 (S/T)

USD/JPY - Barclays - SHORT Stop Order - Placed - Entry: 111.25, Target: 109.05, Stop: 112.32 (TOTW-M/T)

Saturday, June 24, 2017

Forex Insider Daily Update 25 June 2017



Major Bank Daily Position

GBP/USD - UOB - SHORT Position - From 1.2735 - Hit Profit-Stop at 1.2720 (S/T) +15 pips
EUR/USD - Citi - LONG Position - From 1.1192 - Closed at market at 1.1202 (TOTW-M/T) +10 pips

Morgan Stanley

Ms maintains holding the same strategy of buying USD tactically on dipd and selling GBP on rallies.
EUR/USD Long limit order 1.103 We expect USD to rally against EUR as the market reprices Fed expectations. We would use rally in USD to sell vs the EUR We would buy dips to 1.103, with the next resistance area around 1.137
EUR/GBP Long limit order 0.852 We think there is one more leg down in the EUR before we use opportunity to buy. We think there is also one final leg up in GBP as news flow and headlines continue to point to a soft Brexit stance.
USD/CAD Long limit order 1.316 The recent rally in Cad response to the hawkish speech by Deputy Governor Wilkins has pushed USD/CAD near attractive buying levels. Rates markets and CAD have in large part adjusted to these new policy expectations.

CACIB

We note markets already short CAD while long AUD and NZD. Market positioning could thus make carry currencies rather vulnerable to a potential escalation of risk aversion on the back of a persistant drop in oil.
CACIB notes next week’s inflation data out of the Eurozone and Japan should underpin the ECB and BOJ’s cautious outlook but it may not slow down the countdown to QE taper.
In all, USD, EUR and JPY could outperform G10 commodity and carry currencies, especially if market sentiment deteriorates from here.
We stick with longs in USD/CAD and AUD/NZD.

Barclays

We expect the maximum uncertainity to bite in the coming quarter. From there, reduction in prevailing undervaluation and increased clarity around the negotiations support GBP appreciation.

Barclays targets GBP/USD at 1.25 by the end of Q3, and 1.29 end of year. 

Note: From Monday, there will be several updates daily so you will get the positions update even faster, not based on daily update. 

Thursday, June 22, 2017

Forex Insider Daily Update 22 June 2017

Major Bank Daily Position

GBP/USD - Citi - SHORT Position - Opened - Entry: 1.2671, Target: 1.2350, Stop: 1.2875 (M/T)
GBP/USD - Credit Suisse - SHORT Limit Order - Adjusted - Target from 1.2500 to 1.2550, Entry: unch., Stop: unch. (S/T)
EUR/USD - Credit Suisse - LONG Position - Opened - Entry: 1.1165, Target: 1.1300, Stop: 1.1109 (S/T)
USD/CAD - Crédit Agricole - LONG Position - From 1.3190 - Adjusted - Stop from 1.2950 to 1.3195, Target: unch. (M/T)
USD/CHF - Credit Suisse - LONG Limit Order - Filled - Entry: 0.9708 - Target: 0.9857, Stop: 0.9639 (S/T)

ING

ING argues that such a strong bullish call is largely on the back of a view that the world economy is recovering and the normalization of central bank monetary policy will be a key theme.
For 2H17, we think ECB policy normalization will trigger a breakout in Bund yields probably lifting US yields in the process. ING targets EUR/JPY at 129 in 1 month, 136 in 3 month and 138 in 6 month.

Barclays

The Australia US yield differential would likely to continue to narrow in 2017, taking consideration one more Fed rate hike this year while RBA hold. Barclays targets AUD/USD at 0.75 through the second half of the year, AUD/NZD at 1.04 by Q3 end and at 1.03 by end 2017.

Danske

A rise in geopolitical tensions could be JPY positive but need not be so if this derives from North Korea. Continues equity commodity markets decoupling poses downside risks to USD/JPY If equity markets start to correct.
Danske only sees a modest USD/JPY appreciation towards 112 in 1-3 months.

BTMU

BTMU holds an optimistic assessment of Brexit negotiations moving toward a favourable transition phase beyond the current end date of negotiations set at 29th March 2019.
We believe it is in the interest of both sides to dial down that cliff edge date and by focusing quickly on a transition that effectively will mean the UK remaining in the Single market for longer is a scenario we see becoming the reality of Brexit negotiations perhaps by Q1 or Q2 2018.
We had penciled Fed 2018 for a first rate hike by BOE.

BTMU concludes that the downside for GBP from here should be limited given the prospect of a favorable transition deal and given scenario is also assumption of the BOE that prompted a conclusion in the QIR that rates may need to move higher than financial markets currently assuming. 

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Forex Insider Daily Update 21 June 2017

Major Bank Daily Position

EUR/JPY - Credit Suisse - LONG Limit Order - Filled - Entry: 124.00 - Target: 126.40, Stop: 123.75 (S/T)
GBP/USD - UOB - SHORT Position - From 1.2735 - Adjusted - Stop from 1.2820 to 1.2720, Target: unch. (S/T)
EUR/JPY - Credit Suisse - LONG Position - From 124.00 - Stopped out at 123.75 (S/T) -25 pips
EUR/GBP - Credit Suisse - LONG Limit Order - Filled - Entry: 0.8785 - Target: 0.9025, Stop: 0.8710 (S/T)
USD/CAD - Credit Suisse - SHORT Position - From 1.3280 - Stopped out at 1.3310 (S/T) -30 pips
NZD/USD - Morgan Stanley - SHORT Position - From 0.7260 - Adjusted - Stop from 0.7330 to 0.7250, Target: unch. (TOTW-S/T)
NZD/USD - Morgan Stanley - SHORT Position - From 0.7260 - Hit Profit-Stop at 0.7250 (TOTW-S/T) +10 pips
AUD/NZD - Nomura - LONG Position - From 1.0510 - Stopped out at 1.0400 (M/T) -110 pips

Goldmansachs

EUR/USD a buy on dip. It points to 1.1012 as possible levels to intiate a trade to 1.13 break as confirmation level and to 1.1521 as a target to trade.
So far seeming like a flat/shallow correction which means it could remain in this 1.11/1.13 range for a while longer. Ultimately expecting an eventual topside breakout and continuation of the underlying uptrend.

ANZ

“The RBNZ clear neutral stance remains. We still hold the view that the RBNZ will likely tighten next year, given our belief that the economy will grow at a rate that will gradually eat into capacity. However, the RBNZ is some way away from embracing that mindset, it will not react until it sees broad based inflation.
There is nothing stern in this and it is hard to argue against currency strength when your terms of trade are set to hit an all time high.

ABN AMRO

We expect both brent and WTI oil prices to recover towards USD 60/bbl. At this moment, we see no strong argument to lower this forecast based on the current negative market sentiment. 

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Forex Insider Daily Update 20 June 2017

Major Bank Daily Position

USD/JPY - UOB - LONG Position - Opened - Entry: 111.65, Target: 112.80, Stop: 110.85 (S/T)
GBP/USD - Deutsche Bank - SHORT Limit Order - Placed - Entry: 1.2799, Target: 1.2500, Stop: 1.2970 (M/T)
EUR/GBP - Credit Suisse - LONG Limit Order - Placed - Entry: 0.8785, Target: 0.9025, Stop: 0.8710 (S/T)
EUR/JPY - Credit Suisse - LONG Limit Order - Placed - Entry: 124.00, Target: 126.40, Stop: 123.75 (S/T)
NZD/USD - Credit Suisse - LONG Position - Opened - Entry: 0.7240, Target: 0.7480, Stop: 0.7165 (S/T)
USD/CHF - Credit Suisse - LONG Limit Order - Placed - Entry: 0.9708, Target: 0.9857, Stop: 0.9639 (S/T)
USD/CAD - Credit Suisse - SHORT Position - Opened - Entry: 1.3280, Target: 1.3020, Stop: 1.3310 (S/T)
GBP/USD - Credit Suisse - SHORT Limit Order - Placed - Entry: 1.2750, Target: 1.2500, Stop: 1.2848 (S/T)
EUR/USD - Credit Suisse - LONG Limit Order - Canceled - Entry: 1.1105, Stop: 1.1053 (S/T)
AUD/USD - Credit Suisse - LONG Position - Opened - Entry: 0.7593, Target: 0.7700, Stop: 0.7495 (S/T)
USD/JPY - Credit Suisse - LONG Limit Order - Placed - Entry: 110.86, Target: 113.10, Stop: 109.65 (M/T)
GBP/USD - UOB - SHORT Position - From 1.2735 - Adjusted - Stop from 1.2820 to 1.2720, Target: unch. (S/T)

Danske

Fed confirms its eagerness to move on with both rate hikes and balance sheet reduction, this should keep USD supported near term.
However, the drop in actual US core inflation in May combined with downgraded inflation outlook will end the agressive tightening. Thus, USD strength driven by FEd should prove temporary. 
Danske maintains a bull EUR/USD in medium term but staying short targetting 1.085 over the summer. 

ING

We attribute that to speculation of ECb tapering this summer. We think that ECB will have to provide some update either 20 July meeting or more likely at 7 September.
We have a baseline yields break higher in 3Q 2017, carrying EUR/USD to 1.15

Monday, June 19, 2017

Forex Insider Daily Update 19 June 2017


Major Bank Daily Position

NZD/JPY - Nomura - LONG Position - From 78.00 - Hit Target at 81.00 +300 pips
EUR/USD - Citi - LONG Limit Order - Placed - Entry: 1.1192, Target: 1.1450, Stop: 1.1040 (TOTW-M/T)
NZD/USD - Morgan Stanley - SHORT Position - Opened - Entry: 0.7260, Target: 0.7100, Stop: 0.7330 (TOTW-S/T)
EUR/USD - Citi - LONG Limit Order - Filled - Entry: 1.1192 - Target: 1.1450, Stop: 1.1040 (TOTW-M/T)

SocGen

The market is long euro and bullish In a range 1.11 -1.13. It is hard to see breaking the range for now but we will get a spike if that happen. It’s probably EUR/JPY that can trigger a move in EUR/USD as yen bears re-emerge.

Morgan Stanley

MS recommends selling NZD/USD with a target 0.71 and stop at 0.733.
The best way to play a tactical USD rally is via selling NZD.

NZD has seen an impressive rally since May and have room for a set back due to technical perspective. We expect RBNZ to retain its neutral stance but acknowledge the risk of them pushing back against NZD strength. 

Saturday, June 17, 2017

Forex Insider Daily Update 18 June 2017



Major Bank Daily Position

NZD/JPY - Morgan Stanley - LONG Position - From 78.49 - Closed at market at 79.89 (M/T) +140 pips
USD/CAD - Morgan Stanley - LONG Limit Order - Placed - Entry: 1.3160, Target: 1.4000, Stop: 1.3000 (M/T)
AUD/NZD - Nomura - LONG Limit Order - Placed - Entry: 1.0510, Target: 1.0750, Stop: 1.0400 (M/T)
AUD/NZD - Nomura - LONG Limit Order - Filled - Entry: 1.0510 - Target: 1.0750, Stop: 1.0400 (M/T)

Credit Agricole

In our view, investors continue to under-estimate the Fed’s resolve to normalize policy. We believe the outcome that the FOMC become less datadependant and focused on longer term policy normalization in order to avoid risk of hiking too fast.
We believe long USD/CAD remains an attractive way to position in this view, CACIB maintains a long USD/CAD position from 1.319 targetting a move back to 1.38.

ABN AMRO

We think that BOE will keep monetary policy unchanged this year and the next because of the real income squeeze and uncertainity related to Brexit.
3 members vote for a 25bp increase and mentioned the continuing growth of employment could spare capacity is being eroded, lessening the trade off that the MPC is required to balance and all, all else equal, reducing the MPC tolerance for above target inflation.
We expect GBP to relatively resilient versus US dollar and euro. Our target year end for GBP/USD are 1.3 and EUR/GBP 0.88.

BofAML

We expect Fed to hike faster than markets expect, ECB to taper QE slower than expected & expect BOJ to stick to its yield target until inflation is much higher than current levels. But at some point this year drop it’s guidance on annual purchase and we expect BOE to be on hold but with increasing risks of a rate hike if inflation pressures persists.
If our call for ECB and Fed are right, we should see EURUSD to year end at 1.08 and the end of ECB QE should then support the Euro in 2018 bringing EUR/USD to 1.15 in our projections.
BofAML prefers long EUR/GBP and has a long bias for EUR/JPY.
BofAML recommends expressing its long EUR bias through non USD cross.

Nomura

The absorption of the past oil price shick has opened the door to the BOC reversing its 2015 insurance rate cuts. We continue to look for the BOC to start its rate hike in H1 2018.
Nomura maintain its long CAD exposure via USD/CAD 1.34 – 1.31 put spread.

NAB

NAB notes that USD/JPY is still at the mercy of US yields and gold.
NAD targets USD/JPY at 114,116,118 by end of Q2,3,4 respectively of 2017.

Deutsche Bank

USD/JPY dips around current levels are attractive tactical buying opportunity mainly on the flows grounds which suggest that Jap investors remain reliable buyers of USD/JPY below 110.
Jap investors should cement a firm floor by buying dips around 110.

In line with this view, DC continues to recommend tactical buying USD/JPY dips targeting 118 by year end. 

Friday, June 16, 2017

Shin Daily US Stock Review 16 June 2017


Shin Daily US Stock Position


WMT - SHORT Position - Opened - Entry: 77.75$, Target: 67.91$, Stop:78.35$ (S/T) 

WMT - WAL - MART STORES

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., doing business as Walmart, is an American multinational retailing corporation that operates as a chain of hypermarkets, discount department stores, and grocery stores.


WMT - INSIGHT
Chad Rubin began selling vacuum cleaner parts on Amazon.com Inc. in 2008 and turned it into a multi million-dollar business. But in recent years, Rubin has found it increasingly difficult to compete on the cluttered site, where he has been forced to buy advertising that cuts into his profit. Last year, he decided to shift some of his business to an up-and-coming website where it's easier and cheaper to stand out: Walmart.com.
"Amazon sells 25,000 different kinds of toilet paper holders," says Rubin, who is actually undercounting a product with more than 70,000 search results on the site.  "How do you win and differentiate in that environment?" In the last year, thousands of merchants like Rubin have answered that question by signing on with Amazon's biggest rival.
The notion of Amazon merchants selling through Wal-Mart Stores Inc. would have been risible just a few years ago. But much has changed. Wal-Mart's struggling e-commerce operations have shown signs of life since the company acquired startup Jet.com last year and put its co-founder, Marc Lore, in charge. Meanwhile, among merchants, Amazon has earned a reputation as a demanding and cranky landlord, kicking sellers off its marketplace when customers complain and reaching deeper into their pockets with steeper fees and new advertising products that merchants say are now required to get a sale.
For merchants, Wal-Mart today is what Amazon was a decade ago: a vast frontier with room to grow. Amazon, meanwhile, is reaping the rewards of its popularity. It attracts 180 million unique web visitors each month, about double Wal-Mart's traffic, and can charge merchants accordingly to get a piece of the action.
The overcrowding on Amazon.com is of particular concern to merchants generating almost all of their sales there. Last year, Robert Roque began putting inventory from his health and beauty business on Walmart.com and Jet. About half his sales are now on Amazon—down from 90 percent—due to the quick surge he's seeing on Wal-Mart.  "We had to diversify," he says. "We could not sit back and depend on Amazon and have all our eggs in one basket."
Wal-Mart has a long and contentious history with its suppliers—using its thousands of brick-and-mortar stores and millions of shoppers as leverage to pressure them to cut prices. The world’s biggest retailer has good reason to be more accommodating to its online merchants. While Wal-Mart's online store has generated impressive sales growth in recent quarters, it hosts mere thousands of sellers versus Amazon's two million-plus. Wal-Mart needs to catch up if it is to match Amazon's reputation as the Everything Store. 
"You don’t want to have a shopper look for something on your site and not find it, because you might lose that customer for good," says David Spitz, whose ChannelAdvisor works with Wal-Mart to recruit new sellers.
Though Amazon's marketplace is open to virtually anyone who goes through an online registration process, Wal-Mart is invite-only because the company wants to vet sellers before giving them access to its customers.
Typically third-party firms like ChannelAdvisor and CommerceHub invite merchants to join Wal-Mart and sell them software to make it possible to offer their wares on the site. "It didn't take much convincing," says Craig Vanderwier, internet sales manager for Maple Hill Golf, a family-owned golf retailer that had already been working with ChannelAdvisor for a few years. 
The charm offensive is starting to pay off:  Wal-Mart now sells 50 million products online, up from about 10 million a year ago, narrowing the gap with Amazon, which offers some 350 million products.
Not all companies are keen to sell their wares on Wal-Mart. Some high-end manufacturers refuse to list their products on the site because Wal-Mart is still perceived as low-end. "If the top two brands aren’t there, that’s a huge dent in sales," Vanderwier says. "Wal-Mart will run into some problems if they cannot get vendors to buy in." To get around that issue, Wal-Mart has been acquiring small upscale sellers, such as Moosejaw. It sells outdoor equipment and apparel, including products from Arcteryx, a maker of $550 backpacks and other upmarket mountaineering gear that cannot be found at Wal-Mart's brick-and-mortar stores. And vendors leery of selling on Walmart.com have no qualms about Jet.
For now, it's much easier for merchants to stand out on Wal-Mart's online marketplace. They also benefit from Wal-Mart's huge investment in Google ads, a strategy Lore used to move product on Jet.com before selling the company to Wal-Mart. Rubin says his CrucialVacuum.com now gets 20 percent of revenue through Wal-Mart, which takes about 15 percent of each transaction. By contrast, Amazon gets about 30 percent, between the per-sale commission and the cost of buying advertising. So Rubin is benefiting from Wal-Mart's marketing budget, which is driving more people to his products. At Amazon, he has to increase his own marketing budget because there are so many competing products.
Tim Werkley, whose logistics firm ships up to 25,000 packages a day, has seen un uptick in inquiries from online merchants looking to sell on Wal-Mart. His Swan Packaging, which helps merchants ship inventory to Amazon warehouses, is increasingly helping customers sell items on Walmart.com. "Wal-Mart is definitely the new frontier," he says. "You put yourself in a precarious position when you are only on Amazon."
Comment: Such a great change from Walmart, despite their effort to win the competition such a drastic change will not do any good in the short period of time, so we called for sell on the counter for a while

Thursday, June 15, 2017

Forex Insider Daily Update 15 June 2017



Major Bank Daily Position

USD/CAD - Crédit Agricole - LONG Limit Order - Placed - Entry: 1.3190, Target: 1.3800, Stop: 1.2950 (M/T)
USD/CAD - Crédit Agricole - LONG Limit Order - Filled - Entry: 1.3190 - Target: 1.3800, Stop: 1.2950 (M/T)
AUD/USD - Deutsche Bank - SHORT Limit Order - Filled - Entry: 0.7600 - Target: 0.7000, Stop: 0.8000 (L/T)
EUR/GBP - Citi - LONG Limit Order - Placed - Entry: 0.8775, Target: 0.9100, Stop: 0.8675 (S/T)
EUR/USD - Nomura - LONG Position - From 1.0845 - Adjusted - Stop from 1.1100 to 1.1145, Target: unch.
EUR/GBP - Citi - LONG Limit Order - Filled - Entry: 0.8775 - Target: 0.9100, Stop: 0.8675 (S/T)
USD/CAD - ABN-AMRO - SHORT Position - From 1.3455 - Adjusted - Stop from 1.3800 to 1.3455, Target: unch. (L/T)
EUR/USD - Nomura - LONG Position - From 1.0845 - Hit Profit-Stop at 1.1145 +300 pips

Danske

Danske warns of the risk that a perfect storm may hit USD liquidity in H2 2017.
“Besides Fed rate hikes and quantitative tightening the US treasury will likely soon begin to drain liquidity from the market, when a solution to the debt limit issue is found. US treasury exhausts it’s extraordinary measure possibly early autumn so Congress must either lift or suspend the debt limit soon to avoid a US government default.
As we expect a deal to be reached eventually, the US Treasury will likely to begin to rebuild its cash buffer (which aims at USD 150 – 450 bn) in late Q3 or in the beginning of Q4 this year, thus draining dollars from the system.
As the Fed may be too optimistic about its ability to shrink its balance sheets, we see a risk of the start of an unwarranted tightening of USD liquidity over the coming 3-12M depending on the timing of the start of the reduction. That should widen the EUR/USD XCCY basis and be a negative contributing factor for EUR/USD, especially now that 40% of the reduction is conducted by ceasing reinvesting mortage backed securities.
In line with this view, Danske stays tactically short EUR/USD in its portfolio for a dip below 1.1 in the cross over the summer driven by a Fed determined to move on with policy normalization and an ECB that could be side-lined for a while as inflation and Eurozone growth lose momentum.

SocGen

SocGen notes that US rates trundling slowly higher and bond yields firmly in a range.
“That level makes USD/JPY look a bit low and as markets calm down, the yen should weaken again. EUR/JPY remains a very attractive buy here. But the big market driver may be less where TIPS go than where yields go elsewhere.”
For now, EUR/USD seems to have a hard ceiling at 1.13 but if we see positions lighten up somewhat while meandering in the current mini range (1.115 – 1.13?) then we will make a base from which to push higher.

Nordea

Nordea comments on the outcome of today’s FOMC decision in which the Fed raised the Fed funds target by 25bps to a range of 1% to 1.25% and outlined how they will proceed with balance sheet normalization later this year.
Our view: with no major surprises from the Fed we stick to our forecast that the Fed will hike rates again in September and that the bank will start its balance sheet adjustment in December.

The risk to this call is that ongoing soft inflation prints delay the rate hike and subsequently the balance sheet runoff.

Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Shin Daily US Stock Review 14 June 2017

Shin Daily US Stock Position


HTZ - LONG Position - Opened - Entry: 9.85$, Target: 27.65$, Stop:8.64$ (M/T) 

HTZ - HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS INC

Hertz, a subsidiary of Hertz Global Holdings Inc is an American car rental company with international locations in 150 countries worldwide. Hertz is the second largest U.S. car rental company by sales, locations, and fleet size

HTZ - Insight
Hertz Global Holdings Inc. HTZ revealed that its subsidiary The Hertz Corporation has inked a deal with Hertz Mexico (operated by Avasa) and leading Mexican airline – Aeroméxico. The three-way and exclusive partnership will allow passengers traveling with Aeroméxico to book car rentals with Hertz at the best rates through the airline's website (Aeromexico.com) and call center.


Aeroméxico operates as a key international airline serving 84 destinations in Mexico; North, South, and Central America; the Caribbean, Europe, and Asia. The company caters to more than 20 million customers.



Coming back to the deal, Aeroméxico travelers can avail car rentals with Hertz and Firefly in Mexico, as well as Hertz, Dollar, Thrifty and Firefly in the airline’s destinations worldwide. These travelers can avail special rates for Hertz and Firefly in Mexico by showing boarding pass at the brand’s car rental desk in airports across the country. Further, passengers can make use of the new car rental booking engine at Aeromexico.com to comfortably book flights and car rentals.



Further, Hertz Mexico will feature Aeroméxico branding and offers on its website and car rental desks at the airports.



A deal of this kind is not new for Hertz. The company has been establishing such partnerships in various countries owing to its strong tradition to innovate, offering customers enhanced convenience and high quality service. Additionally, the company remains keen on expanding its reach globally. In one such move, the company launched the Hertz, Dollar and Thrifty operations in Colombo, the capital of Sri Lanka, in May this year. The launch came after the company entered a multi-year agreement with local franchise partner Andrew The Car Rental Company (Pvt) Ltd.

Comment
"We See this kind of partnership as a good for the future performance of both side, maintain Buy HTZ for now"