Forex Insider Daily Update 27 June 2017

Major Bank Daily Position

USD/CAD - Credit Suisse - SHORT Limit Order - Placed - Entry: 1.3300, Target: 1.2975, Stop: 1.3350 (S/T)

EUR/USD - Credit Suisse - LONG Position - From 1.1165 - Adjusted - Target from 1.1300 to 1.1295, Stop: unch. (S/T)

NZD/USD - Deutsche Bank - SHORT Position - Opened - Entry: 0.7284, Target: 0.7095, Stop: 0.7385 (M/T)

EUR/USD - Credit Suisse - LONG Position - From 1.1165 - Hit Target at 1.1295 (S/T) +130 pips

USD/CAD - Crédit Agricole - LONG Position - From 1.3190 - Hit Profit-Stop at 1.3195 (M/T) +5 pips

USD/JPY - Barclays - SHORT Stop Order - Canceled - Entry: 111.25, Target: 109.05, Stop: 112.32 (TOTW-M/T)

USD/CHF - Credit Suisse - LONG Position - From 0.9708 - Stopped out at 0.9639 (S/T) -69 pips

GBP/USD - Deutsche Bank - SHORT Limit Order - Filled - Entry: 1.2799 - Target: 1.2500, Stop: 1.2970 (M/T)

USD/CAD - Morgan Stanley - LONG Limit Order - Filled - Entry: 1.3160 - Target: 1.4000, Stop: 1.3000 (M/T)

GBP/USD - Credit Suisse - SHORT Position - From 1.2750 - Stopped out at 1.2848 (S/T) -98 pips

USD/CAD - ABN-AMRO - SHORT Position - From 1.3455 - Closed at market at 1.3155 (L/T) +300 pips

 Credit Agricole

The current levels of interest rate differentials and volatility are not supportive for a significant revival of the G10 carry trade.

The glory days of the carry trade were generated by either a historic bullish upturn in commodities and an extraordinary divergence in monetary policies generated by Fed via QE.

There conditions appear absent at the moment with the G10 economic cycles more synchronized and interest rate divergence smaller.

So for carry trades to make a comeback in a big way, we would likely have to see AUD,NZD and USD rates head significantly higher in near term, which is unlikely in our view.

TD

USD/CAD is likely to remain hovering around the predicable 1.32-1.36 range with a bias to trade near the lower end of Q3.

This reflects the fact that even though the BOC surprised markets with its shift in language around the removal of insurance cuts, it now priced to run parallel to Fed over the next 2 years.

TD also notes USD/CAD look cheap with it’s high frequency Fair Value model arguing a push back to 1.34.

Deutsche Bank

The ongoing GBP bounce is likely to be temporary on market’s anticipation of a rate hike late summer or autumn hike from BoE.

Sterling performance around Bank of England hiking cycles has been ambiguous at best.

We remain bearish on sterling, despite a surprising hawking BoE, cable remains expensive to fronet end rate spreads.

DB is structurally bearish GBP into year end and tactically short from 1.2799

NAB

Gold has been the biggest USD/JPY driver so far in June noticing it’s correction down from 1294 to current levels around 1246 has played a significant role in USD/JPY recent bounce.

We suggest that at least near term, gold may well begin to perform thus unless we see a material rise in US yields, USD/JPY will struggle to perform near term.

NAB targets USD/JPY 114 by end of Q3