Forex Insider Daily Update 29 June 2017

Major Bank Daily Position

USD/JPY - UOB - LONG Position - From 111.65 - Hit Target at 112.75 (S/T) +110 pips

USD/CAD - Morgan Stanley - LONG Position - From 1.3160 - Stopped out at 1.3000 (M/T) -160 pips

EUR/NZD - Nomura - LONG Limit Order - Placed - Entry: 1.5570, Target: 1.6190, Stop: 1.5250 (L/T)

BofAML

BofAML continues to see JPY as the nominal anchor for funding trades over the coming year as the BOJ commits to yield curve control targeting.

However, NZD/JPY heading towards highs and looking to increasingly expensive relative to rate differentials, questions on the strength of NZD may become a focal point for RBNZ.

Strong NZ macro fundamentals suggest a policy response will be eventually needed but RBNZ was somewhat cautious at its recent meetings as it continues to push back expectations

With NZD close to the year’s high, investors may prefer for a dip before adding.

TD

The risks to the EUR-phoria theme is that the foundation that build EUR rally looks flimsy over the coming months.

We like the structural EUR story but still look for a pushback towards 1.11 and like EUR/JPY downside over the coming days.

SocGen

The ECB can’t normalize monetary policy without sacrificing the extreme cheapness of the currency, but maybe ECB President thinks he can avoid a disorderly currency correction if he manages to guid market expectation

From here, we think erratically towards EUR/USD 1.2 and above EUR/JPY 130.

BTMU

USD/CAD is likely to break below 1.3 level before year end

However, we do not believe that it is a done deal that a rate hike will be delivered as early as at their next meeting which could create some 2 way price risk for the Lonnie in the month ahead.