Forex Insider Daily Update 22 June 2017

Major Bank Daily Position

GBP/USD - Citi - SHORT Position - Opened - Entry: 1.2671, Target: 1.2350, Stop: 1.2875 (M/T)

GBP/USD - Credit Suisse - SHORT Limit Order - Adjusted - Target from 1.2500 to 1.2550, Entry: unch., Stop: unch. (S/T)

EUR/USD - Credit Suisse - LONG Position - Opened - Entry: 1.1165, Target: 1.1300, Stop: 1.1109 (S/T)

USD/CAD - Crédit Agricole - LONG Position - From 1.3190 - Adjusted - Stop from 1.2950 to 1.3195, Target: unch. (M/T)

USD/CHF - Credit Suisse - LONG Limit Order - Filled - Entry: 0.9708 - Target: 0.9857, Stop: 0.9639 (S/T)

ING

ING argues that such a strong bullish call is largely on the back of a view that the world economy is recovering and the normalization of central bank monetary policy will be a key theme.

For 2H17, we think ECB policy normalization will trigger a breakout in Bund yields probably lifting US yields in the process. ING targets EUR/JPY at 129 in 1 month, 136 in 3 month and 138 in 6 month.

Barclays

The Australia US yield differential would likely to continue to narrow in 2017, taking consideration one more Fed rate hike this year while RBA hold. Barclays targets AUD/USD at 0.75 through the second half of the year, AUD/NZD at 1.04 by Q3 end and at 1.03 by end 2017.

Danske

A rise in geopolitical tensions could be JPY positive but need not be so if this derives from North Korea. Continues equity commodity markets decoupling poses downside risks to USD/JPY If equity markets start to correct.

Danske only sees a modest USD/JPY appreciation towards 112 in 1-3 months.

BTMU

BTMU holds an optimistic assessment of Brexit negotiations moving toward a favourable transition phase beyond the current end date of negotiations set at 29^th March 2019.

We believe it is in the interest of both sides to dial down that cliff edge date and by focusing quickly on a transition that effectively will mean the UK remaining in the Single market for longer is a scenario we see becoming the reality of Brexit negotiations perhaps by Q1 or Q2 2018.

We had penciled Fed 2018 for a first rate hike by BOE.

BTMU concludes that the downside for GBP from here should be limited given the prospect of a favorable transition deal and given scenario is also assumption of the BOE that prompted a conclusion in the QIR that rates may need to move higher than financial markets currently assuming.