Major Bank Daily Position
AUD/USD - UOB - LONG Limit Order - Canceled -
Entry: 0.7515, Target: 0.7615, Stop: 0.7495 (S/T)
GBP/USD - UOB - SHORT Limit Order - Placed -
Entry: 1.2735, Target: 1.2560, Stop: 1.2820 (S/T)
AUD/NZD - Société Générale - LONG Position -
Opened - Entry: 1.0460, Target: 1.0900
EUR/USD - Nomura - LONG Position - From 1.0845
- Adjusted - Stop from 1.1000 to 1.1100, Target: unch.
GBP/USD - UOB - SHORT Limit Order - Filled -
Entry: 1.2735 - Target: 1.2560, Stop: 1.2820 (S/T)
Danske
Danske sticks to its view that the Fed will skip hiking at
the upcoming meeting and instead announce the triggers for Quantitative
Tightening
“A data dependent Fed should wait at least one meeting to
confirm to confirm that recent weakness is only temporary. However, given the
high expectations of a June hike, the Fed may have painted itself into a
corner, as high expectations have weighed on the Fed’s decision before.
If the Fed hikes in June, we do not expect an announcement
on QT, we expect it to be postponed until September meeting. We still think the
third rate hike most likely in December.
We expect unchanged “dots” signaling 3 hikes per year and
see limited chance of a hawkish surprise,”
On the USD front, Danske argues that if Fed presents
something along those lines, the USD could see a boost on the back of the start
of an unwarranted tightening of USD liquidity over the coming 3-12M depending
on the timing of the start of the reduction.
BTMU
“USD/CAD has broken below key support from its 200 day
moving at around 1.3335 level which has reinforced bullish momentum for the
Canadian dollar in the near term,” BTMU adds.
“The development support our bullish outlook for the
Canadian dollar which in part was build on the assumption that BoC would begin
to raise rates in the first half of next year.
If expectations for policy divergence between the BoC and
Fed become less acute, USD/CAD should move closer into line with levels
justified by the price of crude oil which we estimate is currently between 1.25
and 1.3
BofAML
FOMC hike seems very likely, with the market now pricing it
fully.
The focus will be on the tone and any signals for the pace
of hikes in the rest of the year and next year. Following mixed recent data, we
believe that markets already expect a dovish hike next week.
Still, if the dot plot also changes to reflect fewer hikes,
the USD could weaken further.
TD
TD notes that USD/CAD marked its biggest 1 day move in
nearly 3 months, dropping over 1% in reaction to BoC wilkins comments yesterday
which clearly caught markets off guard, as shw cited several improving fronts
regarding the Canadian economy.
“Most importantly she concluded her remakrs asking whether
the considerable monetary stimulus was still needed to archieve the Bank’s
policy mandate. These comments dove tail with the recent shifts in the BOC’s
tone. Indeed, her speech emphasized the sustainability of the recovery, which
comes on the heels of the stellar May jobs report,”
“Overall, this increases the upside risks to our BoC call,
with increasing odds for a hike as early as Octover this year and a break below
1.3 in Q4,”
TD maintains a short USD/CAD position from 1.37 targetting a
move to 1.32
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