Forex Insider Daily Position Update 3 July 2017 Part 1

Major Bank Daily Position

AUD/NZD - Société Générale - LONG Position - From 1.0460 - Adjusted - Stop to 1.0470, Target: unch.

USD/JPY - Credit Suisse - LONG Limit Order - Canceled - Entry: 110.86, Target: 113.10, Stop: 109.65 (M/T)

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Forex Insider Daily Update 1 July 2017

Major Bank Daily Position

AUD/USD - UOB - LONG Limit Order - Filled - Entry: 0.7690 - Target: 0.7790, Stop: 0.7630 (S/T)

EUR/NZD - Nomura - LONG Limit Order - Filled - Entry: 1.5570 - Target: 1.6190, Stop: 1.5250 (L/T)

GBP/JPY - Morgan Stanley - LONG Position - From 142.20 - Closed at market at 146.48 (TOTW-L/T) +428 pips

Morgan Stanley

EUR/USD long limit order @1.12 , Our expected EUR rally has come early inspired by ECb Draghi’s changing his tone on inflation and pushing European rates higher. We see EUR/USD trading towards 1.157 before retracing to 1.12, providing the opportunity to buy again.

EUR/GBP long limit order @0.852 We like to buy EUR/GBP on dips, waiting for the pair to hit the middle of the trading channel.

CACIB

Hawkish overtones from ECB, BOE, BOC have served as a wake up call, highlighting risk that removal of stimulus before long.

USD was the biggest victim as a result not withstanding the Fed’s steadfast hawkishness of late. Lingering political deadlock in Washington DC and underwhelming US data leads to USD headwinds.

Next week RBA might also send a hawkish signal, we stick with our AUD/NZD long.

BofAML

BofAML expects no big changes next week and sees little risk if hawk surprise.

BofAML maintains its view that AUD/USD will eventually revert towards lower end of its trading range of the past year but argues that we need clearer slowdown in external demand before this is tradeable.

SocGen

The signal from BoC is very clear, rate hike if not in July then September. Our technical strategist has pointed to USD/CAD 1.25 as the target once support 1.3 is broken, as is likely in coming weeks.

Perhaps more interesting from a relative viewpoint is to go short NZD/CAD following its failure to break through 0.98 earlier this month. A decline to NZD/CAD 0.92 by year end seems to be in the cards now. 

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Forex Insider Daily Position Update 29 June 2017 Part 1

Major Bank Daily Position

EUR/USD - Morgan Stanley - LONG Limit Order - Adjusted - Entry from 1.1030 to 1.1200, Stop from 1.0800 to 1.0900, Target: unch. (M/T)

AUD/USD - Credit Suisse - LONG Position - From 0.7593 - Hit Target at 0.7700 (S/T) +107 pips

GBP/USD - UOB - LONG Limit Order - Canceled - Entry: 1.2905, Stop: 1.2840 (S/T)

EUR/USD - UOB - LONG Limit Order - Canceled - Entry: 1.1290, Stop: 1.1230 (S/T)

AUD/USD - UOB - LONG Limit Order - Placed - Entry: 0.7690, Target: 0.7790, Stop: 0.7630 (S/T)

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Forex Insider Daily Update 29 June 2017

Major Bank Daily Position

USD/JPY - UOB - LONG Position - From 111.65 - Hit Target at 112.75 (S/T) +110 pips

USD/CAD - Morgan Stanley - LONG Position - From 1.3160 - Stopped out at 1.3000 (M/T) -160 pips

EUR/NZD - Nomura - LONG Limit Order - Placed - Entry: 1.5570, Target: 1.6190, Stop: 1.5250 (L/T)

BofAML

BofAML continues to see JPY as the nominal anchor for funding trades over the coming year as the BOJ commits to yield curve control targeting.

However, NZD/JPY heading towards highs and looking to increasingly expensive relative to rate differentials, questions on the strength of NZD may become a focal point for RBNZ.

Strong NZ macro fundamentals suggest a policy response will be eventually needed but RBNZ was somewhat cautious at its recent meetings as it continues to push back expectations

With NZD close to the year’s high, investors may prefer for a dip before adding.

TD

The risks to the EUR-phoria theme is that the foundation that build EUR rally looks flimsy over the coming months.

We like the structural EUR story but still look for a pushback towards 1.11 and like EUR/JPY downside over the coming days.

SocGen

The ECB can’t normalize monetary policy without sacrificing the extreme cheapness of the currency, but maybe ECB President thinks he can avoid a disorderly currency correction if he manages to guid market expectation

From here, we think erratically towards EUR/USD 1.2 and above EUR/JPY 130.

BTMU

USD/CAD is likely to break below 1.3 level before year end

However, we do not believe that it is a done deal that a rate hike will be delivered as early as at their next meeting which could create some 2 way price risk for the Lonnie in the month ahead. 

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Forex Insider Daily Position Update 28 June 2017 Part 2

Major Bank Daily Position

GBP/USD - Citi - SHORT Position - From 1.2671 - Stopped out at 1.2875 (M/T) -204 pips

GBP/USD - Deutsche Bank - SHORT Position - From 1.2799 - Stopped out at 1.2970 (M/T) -171 pips

EUR/AUD - Goldman Sachs - LONG Position - From 1.4725 - Adjusted - Stop from 1.4545 to 1.4725, Target: unch. (M/T)

GBP/USD - UOB - LONG Limit Order - Placed - Entry: 1.2905, Stop: 1.2840 (S/T)

GBP/JPY - Morgan Stanley - LONG Position - From 142.20 - Adjusted - Stop from 143.00 to 144.40, Target: unch. (TOTW-L/T)

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Forex Insider Daily Position Update 28 June 2017 Part 1

Major Bank Daily Position

USD/JPY - UOB - LONG Position - From 111.65 - Adjusted - Target from 112.80 to 112.75, Stop from 110.85 to 111.30 (S/T)

EUR/USD - UOB - LONG Limit Order - Placed - Entry: 1.1290, Stop: 1.1230 (S/T)

GBP/JPY - Morgan Stanley - LONG Position - From 142.20 - Adjusted - Stop from 139.00 to 143.00, Target: unch. (TOTW-L/T)

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Forex Insider Daily Update 27 June 2017

Major Bank Daily Position

USD/CAD - Credit Suisse - SHORT Limit Order - Placed - Entry: 1.3300, Target: 1.2975, Stop: 1.3350 (S/T)

EUR/USD - Credit Suisse - LONG Position - From 1.1165 - Adjusted - Target from 1.1300 to 1.1295, Stop: unch. (S/T)

NZD/USD - Deutsche Bank - SHORT Position - Opened - Entry: 0.7284, Target: 0.7095, Stop: 0.7385 (M/T)

EUR/USD - Credit Suisse - LONG Position - From 1.1165 - Hit Target at 1.1295 (S/T) +130 pips

USD/CAD - Crédit Agricole - LONG Position - From 1.3190 - Hit Profit-Stop at 1.3195 (M/T) +5 pips

USD/JPY - Barclays - SHORT Stop Order - Canceled - Entry: 111.25, Target: 109.05, Stop: 112.32 (TOTW-M/T)

USD/CHF - Credit Suisse - LONG Position - From 0.9708 - Stopped out at 0.9639 (S/T) -69 pips

GBP/USD - Deutsche Bank - SHORT Limit Order - Filled - Entry: 1.2799 - Target: 1.2500, Stop: 1.2970 (M/T)

USD/CAD - Morgan Stanley - LONG Limit Order - Filled - Entry: 1.3160 - Target: 1.4000, Stop: 1.3000 (M/T)

GBP/USD - Credit Suisse - SHORT Position - From 1.2750 - Stopped out at 1.2848 (S/T) -98 pips

USD/CAD - ABN-AMRO - SHORT Position - From 1.3455 - Closed at market at 1.3155 (L/T) +300 pips

 Credit Agricole

The current levels of interest rate differentials and volatility are not supportive for a significant revival of the G10 carry trade.

The glory days of the carry trade were generated by either a historic bullish upturn in commodities and an extraordinary divergence in monetary policies generated by Fed via QE.

There conditions appear absent at the moment with the G10 economic cycles more synchronized and interest rate divergence smaller.

So for carry trades to make a comeback in a big way, we would likely have to see AUD,NZD and USD rates head significantly higher in near term, which is unlikely in our view.

TD

USD/CAD is likely to remain hovering around the predicable 1.32-1.36 range with a bias to trade near the lower end of Q3.

This reflects the fact that even though the BOC surprised markets with its shift in language around the removal of insurance cuts, it now priced to run parallel to Fed over the next 2 years.

TD also notes USD/CAD look cheap with it’s high frequency Fair Value model arguing a push back to 1.34.

Deutsche Bank

The ongoing GBP bounce is likely to be temporary on market’s anticipation of a rate hike late summer or autumn hike from BoE.

Sterling performance around Bank of England hiking cycles has been ambiguous at best.

We remain bearish on sterling, despite a surprising hawking BoE, cable remains expensive to fronet end rate spreads.

DB is structurally bearish GBP into year end and tactically short from 1.2799

NAB

Gold has been the biggest USD/JPY driver so far in June noticing it’s correction down from 1294 to current levels around 1246 has played a significant role in USD/JPY recent bounce.

We suggest that at least near term, gold may well begin to perform thus unless we see a material rise in US yields, USD/JPY will struggle to perform near term.

NAB targets USD/JPY 114 by end of Q3

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