Major Bank Daily Position
USD/JPY - Credit
Suisse - LONG Limit Order - Canceled - Entry: 110.86, Target: 113.10, Stop:
109.65 (M/T)
AUD/NZD - Société
Générale - LONG Position - From 1.0460 - Adjusted - Stop to 1.0470, Target:
unch.
Nordea
While the longer term direction for EUR/USD is higher, the
pair is ripe for a set back in near term.
Everyone is already long European equities, seasonality for
Bund yields is negative for July, while US data will improve. There are also
signs unhedged equity inflows are moderating.
These unhedged investors are still well in the money, not
due to European equities which have actually weakened since mid-May, but due to
currency effects. If European equities continue to weaken, these market
participants might need to reassess their FX hedge ratios which might add
selling pressure on EUR/USD later this summer.
SocGen
EUR/USD to consolidate some of its recent gains this week
before resuming its next leg higher.
The dollar is a bit oversold, maybe the market is thinking
about Fed meandering is enough for a pause in the sell off?
As monetary policy cycle turns, there is more upside to long
term ECB rate expectations and to Bund yield. Throw in the undervalued currency
and the ingredients are still there for more euro upside in due course.
BTMU
BTMU short term metrics point to GBPupward momentum being
more likely sustained going forward.
Short term yield spreads have moved in favour of the pound,
unlike for the euro for example. We
assume modest further gains over the short term with an end Q3 of 1.31
Barclays
EUR to face some roadblocks and holds a base case for
EUR/USD to range trade.
We believe that the ECB with a still significant output gap
and the benefit of having seen how the inflation story has played out thus far
in the US, will likely err on the side of caution and take gradual approach to
stimulus removal. We would not be surprised to see attemps to dampen reactions
in the EUR and European rates.
Consequently, we would fade the strength in EUR/USD as
markets will likely reassess the balance of risks around monetary in the coming
weeks.
Credit Agricole
CACIB believed US data will turn more positive before long
and should ultimately vindicate the Fed’s constructive outlook.
When it comes to the USD, we remain of the view that current
levels offer attractive risk reward for engaging in new longs, especially as
there is room of rising rate expectations.
Morgan Stanley
JPY side should see market expectations building for new
fiscal spending following the weak performance of Abe’s party at the weekend’s
Tokyo election.
MS recommends buying USD/JPY at market with TP 116 SL 111.5
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